Tuesday's election revealed serious flaws in the Republican party that can no longer be ignored.
Barack Obama challenged deeply Red states and won. Republicans in recent elections don't even seem to want to try and win states like New York and California. Obama, on the other hand, showed what can happen when all you do is show up, turning Virginia, Montana, Indiana and Colorado blue. Not acceptable.
This election also highlighted the already known struggles of the Republican party to bring in the African-American vote.
Let's take a look at some possible candidates for 2012. Analyze how they would do in the general public and how they would fair in heavily blue states and with African-American voters.
Sarah Palin - Governor of Alaska"I'll tell you something, Florida, there is nothing wrong with calling someone out about his record. You need to know the truth."
Palin is one of four immediate front runners for the Republican nomination in 2012. She hit rough patches early on in her Vice Presidential campaign, but Palin became more polished as time went on and her real turning point came when she stood toe-to-toe with Joe Biden in the VP debate and actually performed very well.
After the VP debate, Palin's confidence was at an all time high. She no longer appeared rattled and seemed even more confident in attacks on Obama, whereas before, she seemed a little reluctant to directly criticize him.
If Obama's first term is disastrous, Palin could almost certainly run on solely an "I told you so" mantra and possibly pull out a victory.
Palin is not a politician who will win the African-American vote, especially not against Obama. She could possibly do well in blue states if she campaigned hard enough, but don't expect anything like California to flip if she were to run in 2012.
CONCLUSION: Palin would beat Obama if his first term was disastrous. If Obama even slightly succeeds, I could see problems for Palin going up against Obama.
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts "America cannot continue to lead the family of nations around the world if we suffer the collapse of the family here at home."Romney is someone who's entire RNC speech was devoted to getting himself in good with the staunch conservatives. He was doing nothing but setting himself up for a 2012 run. I fully expect him to run again.
If the economy is still in a rough place 4 years from now, I could see Mitt Romney winning the nomination and possibly the election. Depending on how Obama handled his four years.
Romney is an economic genius. He also has ties that could flip key blue states like Michigan and Massachusetts.
The problem with a Romney run, however, is that southern states may be a little skeptical. An energized Republican base is the most dangerous thing in politics, but if the southern states aren't excited about you, it makes it almost impossible to win. See our most recent election for proof of the problems facing Republicans who can't carry southern states.
I think the south would have trouble getting behind him because (Fairly or unfairly) Romney is Mormon and also because Romney is a former Democrat who very recently still supported abortion rights.
CONCLUSION: Romney, no matter the situation, would lose. Specifically, I think he would pick up Mass and Michigan, but he would lose Texas and Georgia. I just don't think he'd be worth it.
Part 2 coming.